Swansea vs Burnley — Championship result and pre-match forecast, Saturday, 12 September 2026
Metis pre-match forecast
Market-anchored distributionFrozen as published · 5.6 h before kick-off. Never re-computed after the match.
Swansea
46%
pick · result
Draw
27%
Burnley
27%
Final score
3–1
Top pick landed
Metis gave a Swansea win 46.2% before kick-off, and its most likely result was a Swansea win. Expected goals 1.57–1.09 against 3–1 actual.
Forecast against the result
How this forecast scored
Both scores are losses: lower is better, 0 is a forecast that put all of its probability on what happened. A single fixture says nothing on its own — the league's running record is on its league page, and the model is measured against the Pinnacle opening price in the methodology.
Most likely scores before kick-off: 1–1 (13.0%), 1–0 (9.3%), 2–1 (8.6%). It finished 3–1.
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Swansea
| 19 Sept | A | vs Lincoln | 2–1 | W |
| 12 Sept | H | vs Burnley | 3–1 | W |
Burnley
| 19 Sept | H | vs Derby | 1–1 | D |
| 12 Sept | A | vs Swansea | 1–3 | L |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.