Swansea City vs Norwich City — Championship forecast, Saturday, 10 October 2026
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
Swansea City
39%
Draw
27%
Norwich City
34%
Expected goals
1.44–1.29
Swansea City · Norwich City
Swansea City win 39% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 1–1 (12.9%), 1–2 (8.3%), 2–1 (8.2%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 56% of simulations.
Those three cover 30% of outcomes; the other 71% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
Swansea City score at least twice in 42%; Norwich City in 37%.
Scoreline distribution
Norwich City goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.4 | 7.9 | 5.5 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.0 | 12.9 | 8.3 | 3.4 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.7 | 8.2 | 5.5 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.4 | 4.1 | 2.5 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.6 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: Swansea City goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 43% | 27% | 30% |
| Market reference | 39% | 27% | 34% |
| Metis Forecast | 39% | 27% | 34% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
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Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.