Swansea City vs Blackburn Rovers — Championship forecast, Saturday, 31 October 2026
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
Swansea City
55%
Draw
25%
Blackburn Rovers
20%
Expected goals
1.71–1.08
Swansea City · Blackburn Rovers
Swansea City win 55% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 2–1 (12.0%), 1–1 (11.9%), 1–0 (11.3%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 56% of simulations.
Those three cover 35% of outcomes; the other 65% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
Swansea City score at least twice in 52%; Blackburn Rovers in 29%.
Scoreline distribution
Blackburn Rovers goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.7 | 4.5 | 3.3 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.3 | 12.0 | 4.8 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 9.2 | 12.0 | 5.3 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.5 | 5.8 | 3.8 | 1.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 2.1 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: Swansea City goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 40% | 27% | 33% |
| Market reference | 55% | 25% | 20% |
| Metis Forecast | 55% | 25% | 20% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
What changed overnight?
vs previous runxG 1.46–1.30 → 1.71–1.08
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Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.