Stoke City vs Preston North End — Championship forecast, Saturday, 31 October 2026
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
Stoke City
57%
Draw
24%
Preston North End
19%
Expected goals
1.73–1.04
Stoke City · Preston North End
Stoke City win 57% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 2–1 (12.5%), 1–0 (12.1%), 1–1 (11.5%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 55% of simulations.
Those three cover 36% of outcomes; the other 64% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
Stoke City score at least twice in 53%; Preston North End in 27%.
Scoreline distribution
Preston North End goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.6 | 4.3 | 3.1 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.1 | 11.5 | 4.5 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 9.8 | 12.5 | 4.9 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.7 | 6.0 | 3.8 | 1.0 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.7 | 2.2 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: Stoke City goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 40% | 28% | 33% |
| Market reference | 57% | 24% | 19% |
| Metis Forecast | 57% | 24% | 19% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
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Recent form
Stoke City
| 19 Sept | H | vs Sheffield Utd | 2–1 | W |
| 12 Sept | A | vs Watford | 2–1 | W |
No recent results.
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.