Stoke City vs Bristol City — Championship forecast, Saturday, 24 October 2026
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
Stoke City
41%
Draw
28%
Bristol City
31%
Expected goals
1.42–1.26
Stoke City · Bristol City
Stoke City win 41% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 1–1 (13.5%), 2–1 (9.4%), 1–0 (9.3%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 56% of simulations.
Those three cover 32% of outcomes; the other 68% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
Stoke City score at least twice in 42%; Bristol City in 35%.
Scoreline distribution
Bristol City goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.9 | 7.0 | 5.3 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.3 | 13.5 | 7.0 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.9 | 9.4 | 5.6 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 4.2 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: Stoke City goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 35% | 28% | 37% |
| Market reference | 41% | 28% | 31% |
| Metis Forecast | 41% | 28% | 31% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
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Recent form
Stoke City
| 19 Sept | H | vs Sheffield Utd | 2–1 | W |
| 12 Sept | A | vs Watford | 2–1 | W |
Bristol City
| 18 Sept | H | vs Watford | 1–0 | W |
| 15 Sept | H | vs Lincoln | 0–1 | L |
| 12 Sept | A | vs Southampton | 1–4 | L |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.