Stoke City vs Birmingham — Championship forecast, Saturday, 21 November 2026
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
Stoke City
33%
Draw
28%
Birmingham
39%
Expected goals
1.23–1.38
Stoke City · Birmingham
Birmingham win 39% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 1–1 (13.3%), 0–1 (9.1%), 1–2 (8.5%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 54% of simulations.
Those three cover 31% of outcomes; the other 69% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
Stoke City score at least twice in 35%; Birmingham in 40%.
Scoreline distribution
Birmingham goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.3 | 9.1 | 7.0 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 8.3 | 13.3 | 8.5 | 3.9 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.7 | 7.9 | 5.2 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 3.2 | 2.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: Stoke City goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 32% | 28% | 40% |
| Market reference | 33% | 28% | 39% |
| Metis Forecast | 33% | 28% | 39% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
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Recent form
Stoke City
| 19 Sept | H | vs Sheffield Utd | 2–1 | W |
| 12 Sept | A | vs Watford | 2–1 | W |
Birmingham
| 19 Sept | H | vs Middlesbrough | 2–2 | D |
| 12 Sept | A | vs Derby | 2–1 | W |
| 9 Sept | A | vs Norwich | 1–2 | L |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.