Southampton vs Queens Park Rangers — Championship forecast, Saturday, 31 October 2026
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
Southampton
55%
Draw
23%
Queens Park Rangers
22%
Expected goals
1.89–1.09
Southampton · Queens Park Rangers
Southampton win 55% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 1–1 (10.8%), 2–1 (9.8%), 2–0 (9.2%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 56% of simulations.
Those three cover 30% of outcomes; the other 70% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
The most likely Southampton win is 2–1 (9.8%).
Southampton score at least twice in 56%; Queens Park Rangers in 30%.
Scoreline distribution
Queens Park Rangers goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.7 | 5.0 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.8 | 10.8 | 6.0 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.2 | 9.8 | 5.1 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.8 | 6.2 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.8 | 3.0 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 1.5 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: Southampton goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 58% | 24% | 19% |
| Market reference | 55% | 23% | 22% |
| Metis Forecast | 55% | 23% | 22% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
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Recent form
Southampton
| 19 Sept | A | vs Wrexham | 1–2 | L |
| 12 Sept | H | vs Bristol City | 4–1 | W |
No recent results.
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.