Southampton vs Portsmouth — Championship forecast, Sunday, 11 October 2026
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
Southampton
60%
Draw
22%
Portsmouth
18%
Expected goals
2.09–1.02
Southampton · Portsmouth
Southampton win 60% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 1–1 (10.4%), 2–0 (9.5%), 2–1 (9.2%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 56% of simulations.
Those three cover 29% of outcomes; the other 71% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
The most likely Southampton win is 2–0 (9.5%).
Southampton score at least twice in 61%; Portsmouth in 27%.
Scoreline distribution
Portsmouth goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.4 | 4.1 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 8.1 | 10.4 | 5.3 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.5 | 9.2 | 5.1 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.9 | 6.7 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.8 | 3.6 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 2.5 | 2.4 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: Southampton goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 64% | 21% | 15% |
| Market reference | 60% | 22% | 18% |
| Metis Forecast | 60% | 22% | 18% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
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Southampton
| 19 Sept | A | vs Wrexham | 1–2 | L |
| 12 Sept | H | vs Bristol City | 4–1 | W |
Portsmouth
| 19 Sept | H | vs Blackburn | 2–2 | D |
| 12 Sept | A | vs Charlton | 0–0 | D |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.