Southampton vs Derby — Championship forecast, Saturday, 21 November 2026
Championship·Saturday, 21 November 2026·12:30
SouthamptonExpected goalsDerby
2.45 xG0.96 xG
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
Southampton
69%
Draw
18%
Derby
13%
Expected goals
2.45–0.96
Southampton · Derby
Southampton win 69% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 2–0 (9.9%), 2–1 (9.3%), 1–1 (8.3%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 57% of simulations.
Those three cover 28% of outcomes; the other 72% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
Southampton score at least twice in 70%; Derby in 25%.
Scoreline distribution
Derby goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.9 | 2.7 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 7.4 | 8.4 | 3.9 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.9 | 9.3 | 4.5 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 8.1 | 7.7 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 5.0 | 4.7 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 4.0 | 3.8 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: Southampton goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Both teams score57%
Over 1.5 goals86%
Over 2.5 goals66%
Over 3.5 goals44%
Over 4.5 goals26%
Team scoring & clean sheets
Southampton clean sheet38%
Derby clean sheet9%
Southampton score 2+70%
Derby score 2+25%
Southampton score 3+44%
Derby score 3+7%
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 70% | 18% | 12% |
| Market reference | 69% | 18% | 13% |
| Metis Forecast | 69% | 18% | 13% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
2–09.9%
2–19.3%
1–18.3%
3–08.1%
3–17.7%
1–07.4%
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Recent form
Southampton
| 19 Sept | A | vs Wrexham | 1–2 | L |
| 12 Sept | H | vs Bristol City | 4–1 | W |
Derby
| 19 Sept | A | vs Burnley | 1–1 | D |
| 12 Sept | H | vs Birmingham | 1–2 | L |
| 9 Sept | H | vs West Brom | 0–1 | L |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.