Sheffield United vs Watford — Championship forecast, Saturday, 21 November 2026
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
Sheffield United
59%
Draw
23%
Watford
18%
Expected goals
1.87–0.96
Sheffield United · Watford
Sheffield United win 59% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 1–1 (10.9%), 1–0 (10.8%), 2–1 (10.6%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 53% of simulations.
Those three cover 32% of outcomes; the other 68% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
The most likely Sheffield United win is 1–0 (10.8%).
Sheffield United score at least twice in 56%; Watford in 25%.
Scoreline distribution
Watford goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.4 | 4.6 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.8 | 10.9 | 4.9 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.5 | 10.6 | 4.6 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.3 | 6.4 | 3.2 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.8 | 2.9 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 1.4 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: Sheffield United goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 55% | 25% | 20% |
| Market reference | 59% | 23% | 18% |
| Metis Forecast | 59% | 23% | 18% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
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Recent form
No recent results.
Watford
| 18 Sept | A | vs Bristol City | 0–1 | L |
| 12 Sept | H | vs Stoke City | 1–2 | L |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.