Sheffield United vs Lincoln City — Championship forecast, Saturday, 10 October 2026
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
Sheffield United
45%
Draw
28%
Lincoln City
28%
Expected goals
1.51–1.23
Sheffield United · Lincoln City
Sheffield United win 45% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 1–1 (13.2%), 2–1 (10.4%), 1–0 (9.8%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 57% of simulations.
Those three cover 33% of outcomes; the other 67% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
The most likely Sheffield United win is 2–1 (10.4%).
Sheffield United score at least twice in 45%; Lincoln City in 34%.
Scoreline distribution
Lincoln City goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.4 | 5.8 | 4.6 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.8 | 13.2 | 6.2 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 7.4 | 10.4 | 5.8 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 4.7 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.6 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: Sheffield United goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 35% | 27% | 38% |
| Market reference | 45% | 28% | 28% |
| Metis Forecast | 45% | 28% | 28% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
What changed overnight?
vs previous runxG 1.55–1.20 → 1.51–1.23
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Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.