Sheffield United vs Derby County — Championship forecast, Saturday, 24 October 2026
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
Sheffield United
53%
Draw
23%
Derby County
23%
Expected goals
1.69–1.16
Sheffield United · Derby County
Sheffield United win 53% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 2–1 (11.9%), 1–1 (11.0%), 1–0 (10.8%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 57% of simulations.
Those three cover 34% of outcomes; the other 66% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
Sheffield United score at least twice in 52%; Derby County in 32%.
Scoreline distribution
Derby County goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.0 | 4.9 | 3.8 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.8 | 11.0 | 5.5 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 8.8 | 11.9 | 5.0 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.3 | 5.8 | 3.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 2.1 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: Sheffield United goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 39% | 27% | 34% |
| Market reference | 53% | 23% | 23% |
| Metis Forecast | 53% | 23% | 23% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
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Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.