QPR vs Lincoln — Championship forecast, Saturday, 7 November 2026
Championship·Saturday, 7 November 2026·15:00
QPRExpected goalsLincoln
1.82 xG1.01 xG
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
QPR
58%
Draw
22%
Lincoln
20%
Expected goals
1.82–1.01
QPR · Lincoln
QPR win 58% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 2–1 (10.9%), 1–0 (10.9%), 1–1 (10.7%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 54% of simulations.
Those three cover 32% of outcomes; the other 68% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
QPR score at least twice in 55%; Lincoln in 27%.
Scoreline distribution
Lincoln goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.2 | 4.9 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.9 | 10.7 | 5.2 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.2 | 10.9 | 4.6 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.8 | 6.3 | 3.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.5 | 2.7 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 1.2 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: QPR goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Both teams score54%
Over 1.5 goals78%
Over 2.5 goals54%
Over 3.5 goals31%
Over 4.5 goals16%
Team scoring & clean sheets
QPR clean sheet37%
Lincoln clean sheet16%
QPR score 2+55%
Lincoln score 2+27%
QPR score 3+27%
Lincoln score 3+8%
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 53% | 26% | 22% |
| Market reference | 58% | 22% | 20% |
| Metis Forecast | 58% | 22% | 20% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
2–110.9%
1–010.9%
1–110.7%
2–010.2%
3–16.3%
0–06.2%
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Recent form
QPR
| 19 Sept | H | vs Preston | 2–2 | D |
| 12 Sept | A | vs West Brom | 1–1 | D |
| 9 Sept | A | vs Charlton | 0–0 | D |
Lincoln
| 19 Sept | H | vs Swansea | 1–2 | L |
| 15 Sept | A | vs Bristol City | 1–0 | W |
| 12 Sept | A | vs Preston | 1–0 | W |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.