Preston vs Southampton — Championship forecast, Saturday, 7 November 2026
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
Preston
18%
Draw
22%
Southampton
60%
Expected goals
1.00–1.97
Preston · Southampton
Southampton win 60% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 1–1 (10.3%), 0–2 (10.1%), 1–2 (10.1%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 55% of simulations.
Those three cover 30% of outcomes; the other 70% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
The most likely Southampton win is 0–2 (10.1%).
Preston score at least twice in 26%; Southampton in 59%.
Scoreline distribution
Southampton goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.6 | 9.5 | 10.1 | 6.6 | 3.3 | 1.8 |
| 1 | 4.5 | 10.3 | 10.1 | 6.6 | 3.2 | 1.8 |
| 2 | 2.7 | 5.2 | 4.6 | 3.3 | 1.6 | 0.9 |
| 3 | 0.9 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: Preston goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 16% | 23% | 61% |
| Market reference | 18% | 22% | 60% |
| Metis Forecast | 18% | 22% | 60% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
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Preston
| 19 Sept | A | vs QPR | 2–2 | D |
| 12 Sept | H | vs Lincoln | 0–1 | L |
Southampton
| 19 Sept | A | vs Wrexham | 1–2 | L |
| 12 Sept | H | vs Bristol City | 4–1 | W |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.