Preston North End vs Southampton — Championship forecast, Saturday, 7 November 2026
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
Preston North End
18%
Draw
21%
Southampton
61%
Expected goals
1.03–1.89
Preston North End · Southampton
Southampton win 61% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 1–2 (12.1%), 0–1 (11.1%), 0–2 (10.2%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 56% of simulations.
Those three cover 33% of outcomes; the other 67% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
Preston North End score at least twice in 27%; Southampton in 58%.
Scoreline distribution
Southampton goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.5 | 11.1 | 10.2 | 5.7 | 2.4 | 1.1 |
| 1 | 4.0 | 10.1 | 12.1 | 6.7 | 2.8 | 1.3 |
| 2 | 2.8 | 4.6 | 4.6 | 4.0 | 1.7 | 0.8 |
| 3 | 1.1 | 1.8 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: Preston North End goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 26% | 26% | 48% |
| Market reference | 18% | 21% | 61% |
| Metis Forecast | 18% | 21% | 61% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
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Recent form
No recent results.
Southampton
| 19 Sept | A | vs Wrexham | 1–2 | L |
| 12 Sept | H | vs Bristol City | 4–1 | W |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.