Preston North End vs Millwall — Championship forecast, Saturday, 10 October 2026
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
Preston North End
34%
Draw
27%
Millwall
39%
Expected goals
1.37–1.43
Preston North End · Millwall
Millwall win 39% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 1–1 (12.8%), 1–2 (9.5%), 0–1 (8.6%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 58% of simulations.
Those three cover 31% of outcomes; the other 69% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
Preston North End score at least twice in 39%; Millwall in 42%.
Scoreline distribution
Millwall goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.0 | 8.5 | 6.3 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 6.7 | 12.8 | 9.5 | 4.1 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.6 | 7.3 | 5.8 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 3.6 | 2.4 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: Preston North End goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 41% | 27% | 32% |
| Market reference | 34% | 27% | 39% |
| Metis Forecast | 34% | 27% | 39% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
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Recent form
No recent results.
Millwall
| 19 Sept | H | vs West Ham | 2–2 | D |
| 15 Sept | A | vs Middlesbrough | 2–2 | D |
| 12 Sept | A | vs Blackburn | 1–3 | L |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.