Portsmouth vs Swansea City — Championship forecast, Tuesday, 3 November 2026
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
Portsmouth
37%
Draw
28%
Swansea City
35%
Expected goals
1.43–1.30
Portsmouth · Swansea City
Portsmouth win 37% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 1–1 (13.4%), 1–2 (8.8%), 0–1 (8.3%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 56% of simulations.
Those three cover 31% of outcomes; the other 69% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
Portsmouth score at least twice in 41%; Swansea City in 38%.
Scoreline distribution
Swansea City goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.6 | 8.3 | 5.6 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 7.3 | 13.4 | 8.8 | 3.5 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.4 | 7.5 | 5.8 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.4 | 4.0 | 2.3 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: Portsmouth goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 46% | 27% | 27% |
| Market reference | 37% | 28% | 35% |
| Metis Forecast | 37% | 28% | 35% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
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Recent form
Portsmouth
| 19 Sept | H | vs Blackburn | 2–2 | D |
| 12 Sept | A | vs Charlton | 0–0 | D |
No recent results.
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.