Portsmouth vs Stoke City — Championship forecast, Saturday, 7 November 2026
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
Portsmouth
41%
Draw
29%
Stoke City
30%
Expected goals
1.53–1.22
Portsmouth · Stoke City
Portsmouth win 41% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 1–1 (14.0%), 1–2 (8.0%), 0–0 (8.0%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 57% of simulations.
Those three cover 30% of outcomes; the other 70% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
Portsmouth score at least twice in 44%; Stoke City in 35%.
Scoreline distribution
Stoke City goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.0 | 7.4 | 4.7 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.5 | 14.0 | 8.0 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.1 | 7.7 | 6.0 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.1 | 4.4 | 2.4 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.7 | 1.9 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: Portsmouth goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 52% | 26% | 22% |
| Market reference | 41% | 29% | 30% |
| Metis Forecast | 41% | 29% | 30% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
Want the model's read each week? Subscribe for free.
Recent form
Portsmouth
| 19 Sept | H | vs Blackburn | 2–2 | D |
| 12 Sept | A | vs Charlton | 0–0 | D |
Stoke City
| 19 Sept | H | vs Sheffield Utd | 2–1 | W |
| 12 Sept | A | vs Watford | 2–1 | W |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.