Portsmouth vs Millwall — Championship forecast, Saturday, 24 October 2026
Championship·Saturday, 24 October 2026·11:30
PortsmouthExpected goalsMillwall
1.39 xG1.28 xG
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
Portsmouth
39%
Draw
29%
Millwall
32%
Expected goals
1.39–1.28
Portsmouth · Millwall
Portsmouth win 39% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 1–1 (13.6%), 2–1 (9.0%), 1–0 (9.0%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 56% of simulations.
Those three cover 32% of outcomes; the other 68% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
Portsmouth score at least twice in 41%; Millwall in 36%.
Scoreline distribution
Millwall goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.0 | 7.3 | 5.5 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.0 | 13.6 | 7.3 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.7 | 9.0 | 5.6 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 4.0 | 2.7 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: Portsmouth goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Both teams score56%
Over 1.5 goals76%
Over 2.5 goals50%
Over 3.5 goals28%
Over 4.5 goals13%
Team scoring & clean sheets
Portsmouth clean sheet28%
Millwall clean sheet24%
Portsmouth score 2+41%
Millwall score 2+36%
Portsmouth score 3+16%
Millwall score 3+14%
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 36% | 28% | 37% |
| Market reference | 39% | 29% | 32% |
| Metis Forecast | 39% | 29% | 32% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
1–113.6%
2–19.0%
1–09.0%
0–08.0%
1–27.3%
0–17.3%
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Portsmouth
| 19 Sept | H | vs Blackburn | 2–2 | D |
| 12 Sept | A | vs Charlton | 0–0 | D |
Millwall
| 19 Sept | H | vs West Ham | 2–2 | D |
| 15 Sept | A | vs Middlesbrough | 2–2 | D |
| 12 Sept | A | vs Blackburn | 1–3 | L |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.