Norwich vs Cardiff — Championship forecast, Saturday, 21 November 2026
Championship·Saturday, 21 November 2026·12:30
NorwichExpected goalsCardiff
1.88 xG1.14 xG
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
Norwich
56%
Draw
21%
Cardiff
23%
Expected goals
1.88–1.14
Norwich · Cardiff
Norwich win 56% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 2–1 (10.6%), 1–1 (9.8%), 2–0 (9.0%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 58% of simulations.
Those three cover 29% of outcomes; the other 71% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
Norwich score at least twice in 57%; Cardiff in 32%.
Scoreline distribution
Cardiff goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.0 | 5.0 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.0 | 9.8 | 6.2 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 9.0 | 10.6 | 4.8 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.5 | 6.4 | 3.7 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.5 | 2.9 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 1.3 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: Norwich goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Both teams score58%
Over 1.5 goals81%
Over 2.5 goals59%
Over 3.5 goals35%
Over 4.5 goals19%
Team scoring & clean sheets
Norwich clean sheet32%
Cardiff clean sheet15%
Norwich score 2+57%
Cardiff score 2+32%
Norwich score 3+29%
Cardiff score 3+11%
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 52% | 25% | 24% |
| Market reference | 56% | 21% | 23% |
| Metis Forecast | 56% | 21% | 23% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
2–110.6%
1–19.8%
2–09.0%
1–09.0%
3–16.4%
1–26.2%
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Norwich
| 20 Sept | H | vs Bolton | 3–4 | L |
| 12 Sept | A | vs Middlesbrough | 3–4 | L |
| 9 Sept | H | vs Birmingham | 2–1 | W |
Cardiff
| 19 Sept | H | vs Charlton | 3–1 | W |
| 12 Sept | A | vs Bolton | 0–1 | L |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.