Norwich City vs Watford — Championship forecast, Saturday, 31 October 2026
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
Norwich City
60%
Draw
22%
Watford
18%
Expected goals
1.89–0.95
Norwich City · Watford
Norwich City win 60% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 2–0 (10.7%), 1–0 (10.7%), 1–1 (10.5%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 52% of simulations.
Those three cover 32% of outcomes; the other 68% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
Norwich City score at least twice in 57%; Watford in 25%.
Scoreline distribution
Watford goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.2 | 4.9 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 10.7 | 10.5 | 5.1 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.7 | 10.3 | 4.3 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.6 | 6.4 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.1 | 2.9 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 1.6 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: Norwich City goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 59% | 24% | 17% |
| Market reference | 60% | 22% | 18% |
| Metis Forecast | 60% | 22% | 18% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
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Recent form
No recent results.
Watford
| 18 Sept | A | vs Bristol City | 0–1 | L |
| 12 Sept | H | vs Stoke City | 1–2 | L |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.