Millwall vs West Ham — Championship result and pre-match forecast, Saturday, 19 September 2026

Championship·Saturday, 19 September 2026·11:30

2 – 2

MillwallExpected goalsWest Ham
1.15 xG1.82 xG

Metis pre-match forecast

Market-anchored distribution

Frozen as published · 7.9 h before kick-off. Never re-computed after the match.

Millwall

21%

Draw

24%

result

West Ham

55%

top pick

Final score

2–2

Top pick missed

Metis gave the draw 24.2% before kick-off, and its most likely result was a West Ham win. Expected goals 1.15–1.82 against 2–2 actual.

Forecast against the result

Over 2.5 goals57%4 scored
Both teams score59%yes
Millwall clean sheet15%no
West Ham clean sheet32%no
Millwall score 2+31%yes
West Ham score 2+56%yes

How this forecast scored

Ranked probability score0.1733
1X2 Brier score0.9212
Probability on the result24.2%

Both scores are losses: lower is better, 0 is a forecast that put all of its probability on what happened. A single fixture says nothing on its own — the league's running record is on its league page, and the model is measured against the Pinnacle opening price in the methodology.

Most likely scores before kick-off: 1–2 (11.6%), 1–1 (11.3%), 0–1 (9.7%). It finished 2–2.

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Millwall

19 SeptHvs West Ham2–2D
15 SeptAvs Middlesbrough2–2D
12 SeptAvs Blackburn1–3L

West Ham

19 SeptAvs Millwall2–2D
11 SeptHvs Wrexham6–0W

Head to head

No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.