Millwall vs QPR — Championship forecast, Saturday, 21 November 2026
Championship·Saturday, 21 November 2026·12:30
MillwallExpected goalsQPR
1.46 xG1.35 xG
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
Millwall
38%
Draw
27%
QPR
35%
Expected goals
1.46–1.35
Millwall · QPR
Millwall win 38% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 1–1 (12.8%), 1–2 (8.7%), 2–1 (8.0%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 58% of simulations.
Those three cover 29% of outcomes; the other 71% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
Millwall score at least twice in 43%; QPR in 40%.
Scoreline distribution
QPR goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.9 | 7.7 | 5.6 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 7.3 | 12.8 | 8.7 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.3 | 8.0 | 5.8 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 4.1 | 2.6 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.6 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: Millwall goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Both teams score58%
Over 1.5 goals78%
Over 2.5 goals53%
Over 3.5 goals31%
Over 4.5 goals16%
Team scoring & clean sheets
Millwall clean sheet26%
QPR clean sheet24%
Millwall score 2+43%
QPR score 2+40%
Millwall score 3+18%
QPR score 3+15%
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 43% | 27% | 30% |
| Market reference | 38% | 27% | 35% |
| Metis Forecast | 38% | 27% | 35% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
1–112.8%
1–28.7%
2–18.0%
0–17.7%
1–07.3%
0–06.9%
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Recent form
Millwall
| 19 Sept | H | vs West Ham | 2–2 | D |
| 15 Sept | A | vs Middlesbrough | 2–2 | D |
| 12 Sept | A | vs Blackburn | 1–3 | L |
QPR
| 19 Sept | H | vs Preston | 2–2 | D |
| 12 Sept | A | vs West Brom | 1–1 | D |
| 9 Sept | A | vs Charlton | 0–0 | D |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.