Millwall vs Derby County — Championship forecast, Saturday, 31 October 2026
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
Millwall
58%
Draw
24%
Derby County
19%
Expected goals
1.86–1.04
Millwall · Derby County
Millwall win 58% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 1–1 (11.2%), 2–1 (11.1%), 1–0 (10.2%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 56% of simulations.
Those three cover 32% of outcomes; the other 68% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
The most likely Millwall win is 2–1 (11.0%).
Millwall score at least twice in 57%; Derby County in 28%.
Scoreline distribution
Derby County goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.1 | 4.3 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.2 | 11.2 | 4.9 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.7 | 11.0 | 5.1 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.6 | 6.4 | 3.6 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.5 | 2.8 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 1.2 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: Millwall goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 51% | 25% | 24% |
| Market reference | 58% | 24% | 19% |
| Metis Forecast | 58% | 24% | 19% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
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Millwall
| 19 Sept | H | vs West Ham | 2–2 | D |
| 15 Sept | A | vs Middlesbrough | 2–2 | D |
| 12 Sept | A | vs Blackburn | 1–3 | L |
No recent results.
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.