Middlesbrough vs Wolverhampton — Championship forecast, Saturday, 10 October 2026
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
Middlesbrough
42%
Draw
26%
Wolverhampton
32%
Expected goals
1.57–1.25
Middlesbrough · Wolverhampton
Middlesbrough win 42% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 1–1 (12.3%), 1–2 (8.5%), 2–1 (8.0%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 57% of simulations.
Those three cover 29% of outcomes; the other 71% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
The most likely Middlesbrough win is 2–1 (8.0%).
Middlesbrough score at least twice in 46%; Wolverhampton in 36%.
Scoreline distribution
Wolverhampton goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.8 | 7.6 | 4.9 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.5 | 12.3 | 8.5 | 3.2 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.2 | 8.0 | 5.5 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.2 | 4.6 | 2.6 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.8 | 2.0 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.9 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: Middlesbrough goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 52% | 25% | 23% |
| Market reference | 42% | 26% | 32% |
| Metis Forecast | 42% | 26% | 32% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
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Middlesbrough
| 19 Sept | A | vs Birmingham | 2–2 | D |
| 15 Sept | H | vs Millwall | 2–2 | D |
| 12 Sept | H | vs Norwich | 4–3 | W |
No recent results.
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.