Middlesbrough vs Charlton Athletic — Championship forecast, Saturday, 31 October 2026
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
Middlesbrough
75%
Draw
15%
Charlton Athletic
10%
Expected goals
2.23–0.82
Middlesbrough · Charlton Athletic
Middlesbrough win 75% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 2–0 (12.9%), 2–1 (12.6%), 1–0 (12.2%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 52% of simulations.
Those three cover 38% of outcomes; the other 62% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
Middlesbrough score at least twice in 68%; Charlton Athletic in 19%.
Scoreline distribution
Charlton Athletic goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.1 | 2.5 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 12.2 | 7.3 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 12.9 | 12.6 | 3.2 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 8.3 | 8.2 | 4.0 | 0.7 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 4.0 | 4.0 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 2.3 | 2.2 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: Middlesbrough goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 61% | 23% | 16% |
| Market reference | 75% | 15% | 10% |
| Metis Forecast | 75% | 15% | 10% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
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Middlesbrough
| 19 Sept | A | vs Birmingham | 2–2 | D |
| 15 Sept | H | vs Millwall | 2–2 | D |
| 12 Sept | H | vs Norwich | 4–3 | W |
No recent results.
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.