Middlesbrough vs Bristol City — Championship forecast, Saturday, 21 November 2026
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
Middlesbrough
70%
Draw
18%
Bristol City
12%
Expected goals
2.26–0.87
Middlesbrough · Bristol City
Middlesbrough win 70% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 2–0 (11.5%), 2–1 (10.4%), 1–0 (9.8%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 53% of simulations.
Those three cover 32% of outcomes; the other 68% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
Middlesbrough score at least twice in 67%; Bristol City in 22%.
Scoreline distribution
Bristol City goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.6 | 3.1 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 9.7 | 8.4 | 3.7 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 11.5 | 10.4 | 3.9 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 8.4 | 7.6 | 3.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 4.6 | 4.1 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 3.0 | 2.8 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: Middlesbrough goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 66% | 21% | 14% |
| Market reference | 70% | 18% | 12% |
| Metis Forecast | 70% | 18% | 12% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
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Middlesbrough
| 19 Sept | A | vs Birmingham | 2–2 | D |
| 15 Sept | H | vs Millwall | 2–2 | D |
| 12 Sept | H | vs Norwich | 4–3 | W |
Bristol City
| 18 Sept | H | vs Watford | 1–0 | W |
| 15 Sept | H | vs Lincoln | 0–1 | L |
| 12 Sept | A | vs Southampton | 1–4 | L |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.