Lincoln vs Wrexham — Championship forecast, Saturday, 21 November 2026
Championship·Saturday, 21 November 2026·15:00
LincolnExpected goalsWrexham
1.25 xG1.37 xG
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
Lincoln
33%
Draw
29%
Wrexham
38%
Expected goals
1.25–1.37
Lincoln · Wrexham
Wrexham win 38% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 1–1 (13.8%), 0–1 (8.6%), 0–0 (8.5%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 54% of simulations.
Those three cover 31% of outcomes; the other 69% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
Lincoln score at least twice in 36%; Wrexham in 40%.
Scoreline distribution
Wrexham goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.5 | 8.6 | 6.7 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 8.2 | 13.8 | 8.2 | 3.9 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.6 | 8.0 | 5.5 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 3.2 | 2.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: Lincoln goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Both teams score54%
Over 1.5 goals75%
Over 2.5 goals49%
Over 3.5 goals27%
Over 4.5 goals13%
Team scoring & clean sheets
Lincoln clean sheet25%
Wrexham clean sheet29%
Lincoln score 2+36%
Wrexham score 2+40%
Lincoln score 3+13%
Wrexham score 3+16%
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 31% | 28% | 41% |
| Market reference | 33% | 29% | 38% |
| Metis Forecast | 33% | 29% | 38% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
1–113.8%
0–18.6%
0–08.5%
1–08.2%
1–28.2%
2–18.0%
Want the model's read each week? Subscribe for free.
Recent form
Lincoln
| 19 Sept | H | vs Swansea | 1–2 | L |
| 15 Sept | A | vs Bristol City | 1–0 | W |
| 12 Sept | A | vs Preston | 1–0 | W |
Wrexham
| 19 Sept | H | vs Southampton | 2–1 | W |
| 11 Sept | A | vs West Ham | 0–6 | L |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.