Lincoln City vs Burnley — Championship forecast, Saturday, 24 October 2026
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
Lincoln City
34%
Draw
26%
Burnley
40%
Expected goals
1.43–1.42
Lincoln City · Burnley
Burnley win 40% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 1–1 (12.5%), 1–2 (10.3%), 0–1 (8.9%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 58% of simulations.
Those three cover 32% of outcomes; the other 68% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
Lincoln City score at least twice in 41%; Burnley in 42%.
Scoreline distribution
Burnley goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.7 | 8.9 | 6.1 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 6.0 | 12.5 | 10.3 | 4.1 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.6 | 6.7 | 5.8 | 3.4 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 3.8 | 2.2 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: Lincoln City goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 48% | 26% | 26% |
| Market reference | 34% | 26% | 40% |
| Metis Forecast | 34% | 26% | 40% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
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Recent form
No recent results.
Burnley
| 19 Sept | H | vs Derby | 1–1 | D |
| 12 Sept | A | vs Swansea | 1–3 | L |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.