Lincoln City vs Birmingham City — Championship forecast, Saturday, 31 October 2026
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
Lincoln City
27%
Draw
27%
Birmingham City
46%
Expected goals
1.27–1.50
Lincoln City · Birmingham City
Birmingham City win 46% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 1–1 (12.8%), 1–2 (11.4%), 0–1 (10.3%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 58% of simulations.
Those three cover 35% of outcomes; the other 65% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
The most likely Birmingham City win is 1–2 (11.4%).
Lincoln City score at least twice in 35%; Birmingham City in 46%.
Scoreline distribution
Birmingham City goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.1 | 10.3 | 7.2 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 5.3 | 12.8 | 11.4 | 4.6 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 4.6 | 5.7 | 5.8 | 3.7 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 3.0 | 1.8 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: Lincoln City goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 45% | 27% | 28% |
| Market reference | 27% | 27% | 46% |
| Metis Forecast | 27% | 27% | 46% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
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Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.