Derby vs Birmingham — Championship result and pre-match forecast, Saturday, 12 September 2026
Metis pre-match forecast
Market-anchored distributionFrozen as published · 3.1 h before kick-off. Never re-computed after the match.
Derby
27%
Draw
29%
Birmingham
45%
pick · result
Final score
1–2
Top pick landed
Metis gave a Birmingham win 44.6% before kick-off, and its most likely result was a Birmingham win. Expected goals 1.11–1.37 against 1–2 actual.
Forecast against the result
How this forecast scored
Both scores are losses: lower is better, 0 is a forecast that put all of its probability on what happened. A single fixture says nothing on its own — the league's running record is on its league page, and the model is measured against the Pinnacle opening price in the methodology.
Most likely scores before kick-off: 1–1 (13.7%), 0–1 (12.3%), 1–2 (10.6%). It finished 1–2 — one of them.
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Derby
| 19 Sept | A | vs Burnley | 1–1 | D |
| 12 Sept | H | vs Birmingham | 1–2 | L |
| 9 Sept | H | vs West Brom | 0–1 | L |
Birmingham
| 19 Sept | H | vs Middlesbrough | 2–2 | D |
| 12 Sept | A | vs Derby | 2–1 | W |
| 9 Sept | A | vs Norwich | 1–2 | L |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.