Derby County vs Wrexham — Championship forecast, Saturday, 10 October 2026
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
Derby County
35%
Draw
28%
Wrexham
38%
Expected goals
1.36–1.31
Derby County · Wrexham
Wrexham win 38% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 1–1 (13.2%), 1–2 (9.5%), 0–1 (9.4%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 55% of simulations.
Those three cover 32% of outcomes; the other 68% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
Derby County score at least twice in 39%; Wrexham in 38%.
Scoreline distribution
Wrexham goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.9 | 9.4 | 6.1 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 7.2 | 13.2 | 9.5 | 3.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.2 | 7.0 | 5.4 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 3.6 | 2.1 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: Derby County goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 46% | 27% | 27% |
| Market reference | 35% | 28% | 38% |
| Metis Forecast | 35% | 28% | 38% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
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Recent form
No recent results.
Wrexham
| 19 Sept | H | vs Southampton | 2–1 | W |
| 11 Sept | A | vs West Ham | 0–6 | L |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.