Derby County vs Norwich City — Championship forecast, Tuesday, 3 November 2026
Championship·Tuesday, 3 November 2026·19:45
Derby CountyExpected goalsNorwich City
1.49 xG1.27 xG
Metis Forecast
Independent model — no market priceModel updated
Derby County
42%
Draw
27%
Norwich City
31%
Expected goals
1.49–1.27
Derby County · Norwich City
Derby County win 42% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 1–1 (12.9%), 2–1 (8.9%), 1–0 (8.5%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 57% of simulations.
Those three cover 30% of outcomes; the other 70% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
Derby County score at least twice in 44%; Norwich City in 36%.
Scoreline distribution
Norwich City goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.3 | 7.1 | 5.1 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.5 | 12.9 | 7.6 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.1 | 8.9 | 5.7 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.5 | 4.5 | 2.8 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.7 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: Derby County goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Both teams score57%
Over 1.5 goals77%
Over 2.5 goals52%
Over 3.5 goals30%
Over 4.5 goals15%
Team scoring & clean sheets
Derby County clean sheet28%
Norwich City clean sheet22%
Derby County score 2+44%
Norwich City score 2+36%
Derby County score 3+19%
Norwich City score 3+14%
Most likely scores
1–112.9%
2–18.9%
1–08.5%
1–27.6%
0–07.3%
2–07.1%
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Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.