Derby County vs Bolton Wanderers — Championship forecast, Friday, 6 November 2026
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
Derby County
40%
Draw
26%
Bolton Wanderers
35%
Expected goals
1.48–1.34
Derby County · Bolton Wanderers
Derby County win 40% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 1–1 (12.2%), 1–2 (8.5%), 2–1 (8.4%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 57% of simulations.
Those three cover 29% of outcomes; the other 71% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
Derby County score at least twice in 43%; Bolton Wanderers in 39%.
Scoreline distribution
Bolton Wanderers goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.6 | 7.6 | 5.5 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 7.7 | 12.2 | 8.5 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.6 | 8.4 | 5.5 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.4 | 4.3 | 2.7 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.7 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: Derby County goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 43% | 27% | 30% |
| Market reference | 40% | 26% | 35% |
| Metis Forecast | 40% | 26% | 35% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
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Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.