Charlton Athletic vs Bristol City — Championship forecast, Saturday, 10 October 2026
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
Charlton Athletic
29%
Draw
29%
Bristol City
42%
Expected goals
1.31–1.44
Charlton Athletic · Bristol City
Bristol City win 42% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 1–1 (13.6%), 1–2 (10.7%), 0–1 (9.7%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 58% of simulations.
Those three cover 34% of outcomes; the other 66% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
The most likely Bristol City win is 1–2 (10.7%).
Charlton Athletic score at least twice in 37%; Bristol City in 43%.
Scoreline distribution
Bristol City goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.6 | 9.7 | 6.6 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 5.6 | 13.6 | 10.7 | 4.2 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.0 | 5.9 | 6.0 | 3.4 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 3.2 | 1.9 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: Charlton Athletic goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 47% | 26% | 27% |
| Market reference | 29% | 29% | 42% |
| Metis Forecast | 29% | 29% | 42% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
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Recent form
No recent results.
Bristol City
| 18 Sept | H | vs Watford | 1–0 | W |
| 15 Sept | H | vs Lincoln | 0–1 | L |
| 12 Sept | A | vs Southampton | 1–4 | L |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.