Charlton Athletic vs Bolton Wanderers — Championship forecast, Tuesday, 3 November 2026
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
Charlton Athletic
43%
Draw
26%
Bolton Wanderers
31%
Expected goals
1.50–1.27
Charlton Athletic · Bolton Wanderers
Charlton Athletic win 43% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 1–1 (12.5%), 2–1 (9.3%), 1–0 (8.8%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 57% of simulations.
Those three cover 31% of outcomes; the other 69% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
The most likely Charlton Athletic win is 2–1 (9.3%).
Charlton Athletic score at least twice in 44%; Bolton Wanderers in 36%.
Scoreline distribution
Bolton Wanderers goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.0 | 6.9 | 5.1 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.8 | 12.5 | 7.4 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.2 | 9.3 | 5.5 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.5 | 4.5 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.7 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: Charlton Athletic goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 40% | 27% | 33% |
| Market reference | 43% | 26% | 31% |
| Metis Forecast | 43% | 26% | 31% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
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Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.