Cardiff vs Burnley — Championship forecast, Saturday, 7 November 2026
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
Cardiff
47%
Draw
24%
Burnley
29%
Expected goals
1.77–1.27
Cardiff · Burnley
Cardiff win 47% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 1–1 (11.3%), 2–1 (8.6%), 1–2 (7.7%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 60% of simulations.
Those three cover 28% of outcomes; the other 72% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
The most likely Cardiff win is 2–1 (8.6%).
Cardiff score at least twice in 52%; Burnley in 37%.
Scoreline distribution
Burnley goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.5 | 5.9 | 4.0 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.1 | 11.3 | 7.7 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.4 | 8.6 | 5.8 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.7 | 5.5 | 3.2 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 2.2 | 2.6 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 1.2 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: Cardiff goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 55% | 24% | 21% |
| Market reference | 47% | 24% | 29% |
| Metis Forecast | 47% | 24% | 29% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
What changed overnight?
vs previous runxG 1.72–1.31 → 1.77–1.27
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Cardiff
| 19 Sept | H | vs Charlton | 3–1 | W |
| 12 Sept | A | vs Bolton | 0–1 | L |
Burnley
| 19 Sept | H | vs Derby | 1–1 | D |
| 12 Sept | A | vs Swansea | 1–3 | L |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.