Cardiff City vs Birmingham City — Championship forecast, Saturday, 24 October 2026
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
Cardiff City
34%
Draw
25%
Birmingham City
41%
Expected goals
1.34–1.41
Cardiff City · Birmingham City
Birmingham City win 41% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 1–1 (11.8%), 1–2 (9.8%), 0–1 (9.4%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 56% of simulations.
Those three cover 31% of outcomes; the other 69% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
Cardiff City score at least twice in 38%; Birmingham City in 42%.
Scoreline distribution
Birmingham City goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.8 | 9.4 | 6.7 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 7.3 | 11.8 | 9.8 | 4.1 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.9 | 7.5 | 5.1 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 3.6 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: Cardiff City goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 41% | 27% | 32% |
| Market reference | 34% | 25% | 41% |
| Metis Forecast | 34% | 25% | 41% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
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Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.