Burnley vs Portsmouth — Championship forecast, Saturday, 31 October 2026
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
Burnley
47%
Draw
27%
Portsmouth
26%
Expected goals
1.50–1.09
Burnley · Portsmouth
Burnley win 47% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 1–1 (13.1%), 1–0 (11.0%), 2–1 (10.0%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 53% of simulations.
Those three cover 34% of outcomes; the other 66% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
The most likely Burnley win is 1–0 (11.0%).
Burnley score at least twice in 44%; Portsmouth in 30%.
Scoreline distribution
Portsmouth goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.3 | 6.7 | 4.4 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.0 | 13.1 | 6.2 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.5 | 10.0 | 5.0 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.0 | 4.7 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.6 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: Burnley goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 41% | 28% | 30% |
| Market reference | 47% | 27% | 26% |
| Metis Forecast | 47% | 27% | 26% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
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Burnley
| 19 Sept | H | vs Derby | 1–1 | D |
| 12 Sept | A | vs Swansea | 1–3 | L |
Portsmouth
| 19 Sept | H | vs Blackburn | 2–2 | D |
| 12 Sept | A | vs Charlton | 0–0 | D |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.