Burnley vs Derby — Championship result and pre-match forecast, Saturday, 19 September 2026
Metis pre-match forecast
Market-anchored distributionFrozen as published · 10.4 h before kick-off. Never re-computed after the match.
Burnley
54%
top pick
Draw
25%
result
Derby
21%
Final score
1–1
Top pick missed
Metis gave the draw 24.5% before kick-off, and its most likely result was a Burnley win. Expected goals 1.72–1.06 against 1–1 actual.
Forecast against the result
How this forecast scored
Both scores are losses: lower is better, 0 is a forecast that put all of its probability on what happened. A single fixture says nothing on its own — the league's running record is on its league page, and the model is measured against the Pinnacle opening price in the methodology.
Most likely scores before kick-off: 1–1 (11.7%), 2–1 (11.0%), 1–0 (10.8%). It finished 1–1 — one of them.
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Burnley
| 19 Sept | H | vs Derby | 1–1 | D |
| 12 Sept | A | vs Swansea | 1–3 | L |
Derby
| 19 Sept | A | vs Burnley | 1–1 | D |
| 12 Sept | H | vs Birmingham | 1–2 | L |
| 9 Sept | H | vs West Brom | 0–1 | L |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.