Burnley vs Blackburn — Championship forecast, Sunday, 22 November 2026
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
Burnley
52%
Draw
25%
Blackburn
23%
Expected goals
1.63–1.08
Burnley · Blackburn
Burnley win 52% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 1–1 (11.8%), 1–0 (11.1%), 2–1 (10.9%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 54% of simulations.
Those three cover 34% of outcomes; the other 66% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
The most likely Burnley win is 1–0 (11.1%).
Burnley score at least twice in 49%; Blackburn in 29%.
Scoreline distribution
Blackburn goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.1 | 5.7 | 3.9 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.1 | 11.9 | 5.8 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 9.2 | 10.9 | 4.9 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.6 | 5.4 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.7 | 2.0 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: Burnley goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 43% | 28% | 29% |
| Market reference | 52% | 25% | 23% |
| Metis Forecast | 52% | 25% | 23% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
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Burnley
| 19 Sept | H | vs Derby | 1–1 | D |
| 12 Sept | A | vs Swansea | 1–3 | L |
Blackburn
| 19 Sept | A | vs Portsmouth | 2–2 | D |
| 12 Sept | H | vs Millwall | 3–1 | W |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.