Bristol City vs Wolverhampton — Championship forecast, Wednesday, 4 November 2026
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
Bristol City
27%
Draw
27%
Wolverhampton
47%
Expected goals
1.11–1.44
Bristol City · Wolverhampton
Wolverhampton win 47% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 1–1 (12.8%), 0–1 (11.9%), 1–2 (10.6%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 52% of simulations.
Those three cover 35% of outcomes; the other 65% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
The most likely Wolverhampton win is 0–1 (11.9%).
Bristol City score at least twice in 30%; Wolverhampton in 43%.
Scoreline distribution
Wolverhampton goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.4 | 11.9 | 8.3 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 6.8 | 12.8 | 10.6 | 4.4 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 4.8 | 6.0 | 4.7 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 2.5 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: Bristol City goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 36% | 29% | 35% |
| Market reference | 27% | 27% | 47% |
| Metis Forecast | 27% | 27% | 47% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
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Recent form
Bristol City
| 18 Sept | H | vs Watford | 1–0 | W |
| 15 Sept | H | vs Lincoln | 0–1 | L |
| 12 Sept | A | vs Southampton | 1–4 | L |
No recent results.
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.