Bristol City vs Norwich — Championship forecast, Saturday, 7 November 2026
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
Bristol City
33%
Draw
28%
Norwich
39%
Expected goals
1.28–1.39
Bristol City · Norwich
Norwich win 39% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 1–1 (13.2%), 0–1 (8.7%), 1–2 (8.6%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 55% of simulations.
Those three cover 31% of outcomes; the other 69% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
Bristol City score at least twice in 37%; Norwich in 41%.
Scoreline distribution
Norwich goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.9 | 8.7 | 6.7 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 7.9 | 13.2 | 8.6 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.7 | 7.9 | 5.4 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 3.4 | 2.3 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: Bristol City goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 34% | 28% | 38% |
| Market reference | 33% | 28% | 39% |
| Metis Forecast | 33% | 28% | 39% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
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Recent form
Bristol City
| 18 Sept | H | vs Watford | 1–0 | W |
| 15 Sept | H | vs Lincoln | 0–1 | L |
| 12 Sept | A | vs Southampton | 1–4 | L |
Norwich
| 20 Sept | H | vs Bolton | 3–4 | L |
| 12 Sept | A | vs Middlesbrough | 3–4 | L |
| 9 Sept | H | vs Birmingham | 2–1 | W |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.