Bolton Wanderers vs Stoke City — Championship forecast, Saturday, 10 October 2026
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
Bolton Wanderers
34%
Draw
28%
Stoke City
37%
Expected goals
1.40–1.29
Bolton Wanderers · Stoke City
Stoke City win 37% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 1–1 (13.5%), 1–2 (10.1%), 0–1 (9.8%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 55% of simulations.
Those three cover 33% of outcomes; the other 67% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
Bolton Wanderers score at least twice in 39%; Stoke City in 38%.
Scoreline distribution
Stoke City goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.0 | 9.8 | 5.8 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 6.5 | 13.5 | 10.1 | 3.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.1 | 6.3 | 5.6 | 3.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.6 | 3.6 | 1.9 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: Bolton Wanderers goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 55% | 25% | 20% |
| Market reference | 34% | 28% | 37% |
| Metis Forecast | 34% | 28% | 37% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
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Recent form
No recent results.
Stoke City
| 19 Sept | H | vs Sheffield Utd | 2–1 | W |
| 12 Sept | A | vs Watford | 2–1 | W |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.