Bolton Wanderers vs Middlesbrough — Championship forecast, Friday, 23 October 2026
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
Bolton Wanderers
18%
Draw
21%
Middlesbrough
61%
Expected goals
1.06–1.88
Bolton Wanderers · Middlesbrough
Middlesbrough win 61% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 1–2 (12.8%), 0–1 (11.3%), 0–2 (10.0%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 57% of simulations.
Those three cover 34% of outcomes; the other 66% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
Bolton Wanderers score at least twice in 28%; Middlesbrough in 58%.
Scoreline distribution
Middlesbrough goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.2 | 11.3 | 10.0 | 5.3 | 2.1 | 0.9 |
| 1 | 3.9 | 9.7 | 12.8 | 6.8 | 2.7 | 1.1 |
| 2 | 2.9 | 4.6 | 4.6 | 4.3 | 1.7 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 1.2 | 2.0 | 1.6 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: Bolton Wanderers goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 30% | 26% | 44% |
| Market reference | 18% | 21% | 61% |
| Metis Forecast | 18% | 21% | 61% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
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Recent form
No recent results.
Middlesbrough
| 19 Sept | A | vs Birmingham | 2–2 | D |
| 15 Sept | H | vs Millwall | 2–2 | D |
| 12 Sept | H | vs Norwich | 4–3 | W |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.