Bolton Wanderers vs Bristol City — Championship forecast, Saturday, 31 October 2026
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
Bolton Wanderers
34%
Draw
26%
Bristol City
40%
Expected goals
1.39–1.47
Bolton Wanderers · Bristol City
Bristol City win 40% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 1–1 (12.3%), 1–2 (9.5%), 0–1 (8.3%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 58% of simulations.
Those three cover 30% of outcomes; the other 70% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
Bolton Wanderers score at least twice in 40%; Bristol City in 44%.
Scoreline distribution
Bristol City goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.5 | 8.3 | 6.4 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 6.5 | 12.3 | 9.5 | 4.3 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.5 | 7.5 | 5.8 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 3.7 | 2.5 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: Bolton Wanderers goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 39% | 27% | 34% |
| Market reference | 34% | 26% | 40% |
| Metis Forecast | 34% | 26% | 40% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
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Recent form
No recent results.
Bristol City
| 18 Sept | H | vs Watford | 1–0 | W |
| 15 Sept | H | vs Lincoln | 0–1 | L |
| 12 Sept | A | vs Southampton | 1–4 | L |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.