Bolton vs Portsmouth — Championship forecast, Saturday, 21 November 2026
Championship·Saturday, 21 November 2026·15:00
BoltonExpected goalsPortsmouth
1.32 xG1.35 xG
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
Bolton
35%
Draw
28%
Portsmouth
37%
Expected goals
1.32–1.35
Bolton · Portsmouth
Portsmouth win 37% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 1–1 (13.5%), 1–2 (8.6%), 0–1 (8.6%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 55% of simulations.
Those three cover 31% of outcomes; the other 69% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
Bolton score at least twice in 38%; Portsmouth in 39%.
Scoreline distribution
Portsmouth goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.0 | 8.6 | 6.3 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 7.8 | 13.5 | 8.6 | 3.8 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.9 | 7.8 | 5.6 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 3.5 | 2.3 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: Bolton goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Both teams score55%
Over 1.5 goals76%
Over 2.5 goals50%
Over 3.5 goals28%
Over 4.5 goals13%
Team scoring & clean sheets
Bolton clean sheet26%
Portsmouth clean sheet27%
Bolton score 2+38%
Portsmouth score 2+39%
Bolton score 3+15%
Portsmouth score 3+15%
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 37% | 28% | 35% |
| Market reference | 35% | 28% | 37% |
| Metis Forecast | 35% | 28% | 37% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
1–113.5%
1–28.6%
0–18.6%
0–08.0%
1–07.8%
2–17.8%
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Recent form
Bolton
| 20 Sept | A | vs Norwich | 4–3 | W |
| 12 Sept | H | vs Cardiff | 1–0 | W |
Portsmouth
| 19 Sept | H | vs Blackburn | 2–2 | D |
| 12 Sept | A | vs Charlton | 0–0 | D |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.