Bolton vs Cardiff — Championship result and pre-match forecast, Saturday, 12 September 2026
Metis pre-match forecast
Market-anchored distributionFrozen as published · 3.1 h before kick-off. Never re-computed after the match.
Bolton
37%
result
Draw
25%
Cardiff
37%
top pick
Final score
1–0
Top pick missed
Metis gave a Bolton win 37.2% before kick-off, and its most likely result was a Cardiff win. Expected goals 1.39–1.34 against 1–0 actual.
Forecast against the result
How this forecast scored
Both scores are losses: lower is better, 0 is a forecast that put all of its probability on what happened. A single fixture says nothing on its own — the league's running record is on its league page, and the model is measured against the Pinnacle opening price in the methodology.
Most likely scores before kick-off: 1–1 (12.1%), 1–2 (9.0%), 0–1 (8.7%). It finished 1–0.
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Bolton
| 20 Sept | A | vs Norwich | 4–3 | W |
| 12 Sept | H | vs Cardiff | 1–0 | W |
Cardiff
| 19 Sept | H | vs Charlton | 3–1 | W |
| 12 Sept | A | vs Bolton | 0–1 | L |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.