Blackburn Rovers vs Cardiff City — Championship forecast, Saturday, 10 October 2026
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
Blackburn Rovers
35%
Draw
26%
Cardiff City
39%
Expected goals
1.37–1.36
Blackburn Rovers · Cardiff City
Cardiff City win 39% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 1–1 (12.4%), 1–2 (9.5%), 0–1 (9.0%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 56% of simulations.
Those three cover 31% of outcomes; the other 69% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
Blackburn Rovers score at least twice in 39%; Cardiff City in 40%.
Scoreline distribution
Cardiff City goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.1 | 9.0 | 6.3 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 7.3 | 12.4 | 9.5 | 3.9 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.1 | 7.5 | 5.3 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 3.8 | 2.3 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: Blackburn Rovers goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 43% | 27% | 30% |
| Market reference | 35% | 26% | 39% |
| Metis Forecast | 35% | 26% | 39% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
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Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.