Birmingham vs Swansea — Championship forecast, Saturday, 7 November 2026
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
Birmingham
52%
Draw
26%
Swansea
22%
Expected goals
1.80–1.13
Birmingham · Swansea
Birmingham win 52% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 1–1 (12.2%), 2–1 (9.8%), 1–0 (8.7%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 58% of simulations.
Those three cover 31% of outcomes; the other 69% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
The most likely Birmingham win is 2–1 (9.8%).
Birmingham score at least twice in 54%; Swansea in 31%.
Scoreline distribution
Swansea goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.4 | 4.9 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.7 | 12.2 | 5.9 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.5 | 9.8 | 5.8 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.1 | 5.8 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.3 | 2.6 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 1.1 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: Birmingham goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 52% | 25% | 23% |
| Market reference | 52% | 26% | 22% |
| Metis Forecast | 52% | 26% | 22% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
Want the model's read each week? Subscribe for free.
Recent form
Birmingham
| 19 Sept | H | vs Middlesbrough | 2–2 | D |
| 12 Sept | A | vs Derby | 2–1 | W |
| 9 Sept | A | vs Norwich | 1–2 | L |
Swansea
| 19 Sept | A | vs Lincoln | 2–1 | W |
| 12 Sept | H | vs Burnley | 3–1 | W |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.